Bitwise predicts 50% odds of spot ETH ETF approval, $88k BTC by year end

Bitwise researcher Ryan Rasmussen believes there’s a 50% probability that spot Ethereum ETFs will achieve approval within the coming months.

Rasmussen shared his insights on the odds throughout a Feb. 26 interview with Yahoo Finance. He mentioned:

“I certainly don’t know if the market is necessarily at a point that the SEC would like to see in order to approve those spot [Ethereum] ETFs this May. I think it’s about a 50/50 percent chance that we’ll see approval or we’ll see rejection and kick it out to another … round of applications in the future.”

Different sources, together with Bitwise World Head of Analysis Matt Hougan, previously predicted near 50% odds that spot ETH ETFs will achieve approval in Could. In the meantime, the odds for approval are barely decrease on the Polymarket web site at 41%.

The SEC has to resolve on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF software by the Could 23 deadline and is anticipated to resolve on the opposite functions concurrently because it did with the spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Rasmussen additionally mentioned that the US SEC didn’t approve Bitcoin ETFs till Grayscale initiated a lawsuit regarding dismissing its software. He added that it’s unsure whether or not an analogous lawsuit may be essential for ETH ETFs.

Moreover, it’s unclear whether or not any applicant might file a lawsuit at this stage of the method.

Bitwise believes ETFs will drive costs upward

Bitwise doesn’t at present have a pending spot Ethereum ETF software however was one of a number of candidates that gained approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF in January.

Rasmussen famous that Bitwise is “tremendously happy” with the success of Bitcoin ETFs. He mentioned that the agency has seen $1 billion in belongings move into its personal Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and that the ETFs have collectively seen greater than $15 billion in asset move.

Rasmussen additionally predicted that spot Bitcoin ETFs and different funds will drive up crypto costs as beforehand “sidelined” institutional traders purchase in. He mentioned:

“When we have that kind of demand shock coming into the market, I think it’s no surprise that we’ve seen the price of Bitcoin rise … I think it will be the same for Ethereum or other assets if there were other ETFs to come to markets.”

Rasmussen additionally described different occasions impacting the crypto market, together with Bitcoin’s upcoming halving, Ethereum’s upcoming Dencun improve, NFT buying and selling volumes, and Solana’s value progress.

He prompt that crypto is “rising from the ashes” of the weak 2022 market and is getting into a multi-year bull cycle. Rasmussen concluded by restating Bitwise’s earlier value predictions and mentioned that the flagship crypto continues to be on monitor to succeed in a brand new all-time excessive of not less than $88,000 by the end of 2024.