Cosmos ($ATOM) is the coin that powers the whole Cosmos ecosystem. It consists of quite a lot of tasks from totally different spheres equivalent to finance, decentralized exchanges (DEX), and cloud computing. The earliest value knowledge I can discover for $ATOM is from Kraken, beginning in April 2019. Utilizing this value knowledge, the rest of the article represents my greatest efforts to use Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) to isolate its placement in market constructions. I’ll assume that you’ve some data of EWT to grasp the phrases, however I’ve additionally included a small glossary on the backside for reference.
EWT Summary
Cosmos Value Information from Kraken | Supply: ATOMUSD on tradingview.com.
Cycle Wave 0 – Mar 2020 – $1.1151
Major Wave 1 – $2.4794
Major Wave 2 – $1.8482 (38.2% LFR)
Major Wave 3 – $32.2433 (3.618 LFE)
Major Wave 4 – $7.872 (50% LFR)
Major Wave 5 – $44.7383 (1.236 LFE)
Cycle Wave 1 – Sep 2021 – $44.7383
Major Wave A – $20.2221 (Contracting, Main Diagonal)
Major Wave B – $33.2641 (Contracting Triangle)
Major Wave C – $5.5409 (Impulse)
Cycle Wave 2 – Jun 2022 – $5.5409 (50% LFR)
Major Wave 1 – ONGOING
Major Wave 2 – TBA
Major Wave 3 – TBA
Major Wave 4 – TBA
Major Wave 5 – TBA
Cycle Wave 3 – ONGOING
Exploring Additional
EWT makes use of ratios to create value targets. The primary goal being the 1.618 LFE, nonetheless there are the minimal, decrease, and far larger LFE’s to be careful for. For $ATOM we first want to seek out the beta a number of to scale the targets off of. That is completed by taking Wave 1 and dividing it by Wave 0. On this case for the Cycle Wave Diploma it’s roughly 40.12. Then we increase this a number of to numerous numbers outlined by EWT to create a desk of targets. So as under are the LFE Value Targets:
0.618 – $54.26
1 – $222.3
1.236 – $531.3
1.618 – $2,176.84
Subsequently, if we anticipate $ATOM to be a Diagonal then $54.26 – $222.3 is the popular value field.
If we’re in search of the everyday value field then it’s: $531.3 – $2,176.84.
Nonetheless, because of the nature of the subsequent estimated bull run solely the Intermediate Diploma Wave 3 of the Cycle Wave 3 ought to play out. The subsequent bull run is estimated by many merchants and establishments to peak round late 2024 to early 2026. Benner Cycle Theory additionally places a market peak round 2026. You may see the total format for Benner’s Cycle Idea here. As such, the Intermediate Wave 1 and a couple of are: $17.2656 and $6.17. The beta a number of for the Intermediate Diploma is roughly 3.116. Then as we did for the Cycle Wave Diploma the related typical value field is: $25.14 – $38.81. The upper value containers are all above the ATH for $ATOM. The present value motion for $ATOM is overwhelmingly bullish, so the upper value containers are positively a risk.
Cosmos Value Information from MEXC | Supply: ATOMUSD on tradingview.com.
Conclusion
Given the subsequent bull run peak for crypto is probably going late 2024 to early 2026 the related LFEs to make use of for $ATOM are on the Intermediate Wave Diploma . The standard value targets for the Intermediate Diploma Wave 3 are $25.14 – $38.81. The worth as I write is $11.3 so the subsequent peak is a tough 2 to three.5x from right here. If the Wave 3 is closely prolonged and probably goes to the two.618 or 3.618 LFE then a brand new ATH is feasible. That may imply a minimal of a 4x from right here to the subsequent peak. The Major Wave 1 of Cycle Wave 3 is probably going due in late 2026 to 2030 utilizing Fibonacci Time Ratios.
Glossary
Elliott Wave Idea (EWT)
“A theory in technical analysis that attributes wave-like price patterns, identified at various scales, to trader psychology and investor sentiment.”
Supply: “Elliott Wave Theory: What It Is and How to Use It” by James Chen (2023)
Logarithmic Fibonacci Retracement (LFR)
A measured correction at sure Fibonacci ratios on a semi-log scale.
Logarithmic Fibonacci Extensions (LFE)
A measured rally at sure Fibonacci ratios on a semi-log scale.
Supplemental Studying
“Elliott Wave Principle – Key To Market Behavior” by Frost & Prechter (2022)
“Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading” by Gorman & Kennedy (2013)
“How to Calculate Logarithmic Retracements and Extensions” by C. D. Chester (2023)
Disclaimer: The article is supplied for academic functions solely. It doesn’t characterize the opinions of NewsBTC on whether or not to purchase, promote or maintain any investments and naturally investing carries dangers. You might be suggested to conduct your personal analysis earlier than making any funding choices. Use data supplied on this web site solely at your personal threat.
