A JPMorgan government steered on Jan. 12 that securities regulators are equally more likely to approve or disapprove a spot Ethereum ETF in the approaching months.
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a Managing Director for JPMorgan, informed The Block:
“In our opinion, for the [U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission] to approve spot Ethereum ETFs in May, it would need to classify Ethereum as a commodity (similar to bitcoin) rather than a security … This is far from given, and I wouldn’t put more than a 50% chance to the SEC classifying Ethereum as a commodity before May.”
He added that the SEC is “still signaling that it continues to view all other cryptocurrencies outside bitcoin as securities.”
Panigirtzoglou’s feedback allude to a statement from SEC chair Gary Gensler relating to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) approvals on Jan. 11.
There, Gensler stated that the most recent approvals concern solely ETPs holding Bitcoin (BTC) and recognized Bitcoin as a non-security commodity. Gensler added that the approvals mustn’t sign the SEC’s views on the securities standing of different crypto property; he additionally asserted that the “vast majority of crypto assets are investment contracts” and subsequently below federal securities legal guidelines.
Different sources predict as much as 70% approval odds
Regardless of Panigirtzoglou’s low approval estimate, some sources place greater odds on an upcoming spot Ethereum ETF approval. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has predicted a 70% chance of such an approval by May.
One prediction market on Polymarket suggests that there’s a 57% chance of an Ethereum ETF approval by May 31. These odds are primarily based on over $15,000 value of cryptocurrency bets moderately than any particular person’s private stance.
Predictions largely concentrate on May as a result of the SEC should determine on a spot Ethereum ETF software from VanEck by May 23. Different candidates together with BlackRock, Constancy, VanEck, ARK Make investments, and Invesco Galaxy have additionally filed for spot Ethereum ETFs, however with later resolution deadlines.
The SEC authorised a quantity of ETFs that included Ethereum futures in October 2023 however has not but authorised a spot Ethereum ETF.
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