The full 2024 Oscar nominations list — and predictions for who wins

The 2024 Academy Awards are set to air this Sunday, March 10, and at an hour sooner than standard: 7 p.m. EST/4 p.m. PST. And whereas Oppenheimer seems set to brush, there’s loads of room for surprises.

This yr’s Oscar nominations honor extremely regarded movies from world wide, performances that premiered in theaters and on streaming, and a couple of of the largest films of the yr — together with the Barbenheimer double function. It’s been a sluggish crawl again from the hazy pandemic period, the place films that kinda sorta got here out in time received Finest Image, however right here we’re, with a set of nominations that stands to be each predictable and electrifying.

How predictable? Right here is the full list of 2024 Oscar nominations and who or what we expect might win. Or perhaps much more enjoyable: who or what might shock with an upset.

Finest Image nominations and predictions

Pondering actual onerous about Oscar noms
Picture: Common Footage

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Previous Lives
Poor Issues
The Zone of Curiosity

What’s going to win? Hovering at “If anything beats Oppenheimer, I will eat a shoe” ranges of confidence that Oppenheimer will win.

Who might upset? The Zone of Curiosity and Anatomy of a Fall made greater splashes than anticipated — might the expanded, extra worldwide voting base drive them to win? Neither really feel as zeitgeisty as Parasite, however you by no means know.

Finest Director

Justine Triet — Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese — Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos — Poor Issues
Jonathan Glazer — The Zone of Curiosity

Who will win? Nolan, as a make-up for not giving him 100 Oscars for Tenet (Oppenheimer is fairly good too).

Who might upset? There may be lots of love for Glazer and his deeply unsettling imaginative and prescient for The Zone of Curiosity. If voters needed to interrupt up the love, they might hand Oppenheimer a Finest Image win and stiff Nolan in favor of the opposite British filmmaker.

Finest Actor

Jeffrey Wright — American Fiction
Paul Giamatti — The Holdovers
Bradley Cooper — Maestro
Cillian Murphy — Oppenheimer
Colman Domingo — Rustin

Who will win? This one feels tight, with Murphy and Giamatti choosing up a ton of reward from totally different voting our bodies over the season and Wright being a dark-horse favourite. However the affect of Oppenheimer throughout different classes — to not point out different awards exhibits just like the BAFTAs and the SAG Awards — provides Murphy the lead. No, it’s not honest that he acquired to emote that tough in IMAX.

Who might upset? If it’s not Murphy, it’s Giamatti. If it’s not Giamatti, it’s Murphy.

Finest Actress

Ernest (Leonardo DiCaprio, in tan suit and cowboy hat) comforts his wife Mollie (Lily Gladstone) as she leans against him in front of a furniture-store window in Killers of the Flower Moon

Lily Gladstone and Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon
Picture: Paramount Footage/Everett Assortment

Sandra Hüller — Anatomy of a Fall
Lily Gladstone — Killers of the Flower Moon
Annette Bening — Nyad
Carey Mulligan — Maestro
Emma Stone — Poor Issues

Who will win? An in depth name between two Stones, however even with the season equally divided between them, I’m leaning towards Lily Gladstone, who enters the sector with the aura of breakout vitality. Gladstone received on the SAG Awards, however take into account that all Academy members (not simply the actor voting physique) will weigh in on the actor classes.

Who might upset? Everybody thinks it’s a race between Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone however I’d be careful for the worldwide love for Hüller.

Finest Supporting Actor

Sterling Okay. Brown — American Fiction
Ryan Gosling — Barbie
Robert De Niro — Killers of the Flower Moon
Mark Ruffalo — Poor Issues
Robert Downey Jr. — Oppenheimer

Who will win? Ryan Gosling is completely satisfied to be there, however that is def going to Robert Downey Jr. for reminding us all he’s A Fairly Good Actor, Truly.

Who might upset? If the cultural phenomenon of Barbie feels underrepresented on this yr’s ceremony, Gosling might come by means of with an upset.

Finest Supporting Actress

America Ferrera — Barbie
Danielle Brooks — The Shade Purple
Da’Vine Pleasure Randolph — The Holdovers
Jodie Foster — Nyad
Emily Blunt — Oppenheimer

Who will win? Da’Vine Pleasure Randolph has been sweeping this class at critics teams and greater award season stops, just like the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards. Make investments now. Purchase, purchase, purchase!

Who might upset? Nyad scored nominations for each its essential actors, suggesting there’s nonetheless some love for these quaint star-driven autos. Having seen Foster kill it weekly on True Detective: Night time Nation might really give her some momentum right here.

Finest Authentic Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Might December
Previous Lives

Who will win? The Holdovers has the stamp of approval from different classes, however I might not put it previous Anatomy of a Fall to get its massive win right here. Individuals love the film!

Who might upset? Previous Lives solely scored two nominations — for Authentic Screenplay and frickin’ Finest Image. The film additionally received massive on the Unbiased Spirit Awards. Voters could wish to couple the top-prize nom with this smaller class.

Finest Tailored Screenplay

American Fiction
Poor Issues
The Zone of Web

Who will win? Oppenheimer may need the gas, however this may be the place voters assume to reward Gerwig’s tackle a toy-based film, particularly since they snubbed her in director.

Who might upset? However even the Oppenheimer script has bizarre hype. Do you know Nolan wrote it in first person?

Finest Worldwide Function Movie

Several people stand in a walled garden with the towers of Auschwitz behind them in The Zone of Interest

Picture: A24

Io Capitano
Excellent Days
Society of the Snow
The Lecturers’ Lounge
The Zone of Curiosity

Who will win? The Zone of Curiosity. Having the film pop up in Finest Image is an indication a big share of the voting physique noticed and was enamored by Jonathan Glazer’s movie. If France had put Anatomy of a Fall up for Finest Worldwide Function Movie consideration as a substitute of The Style of Issues (an equally beloved movie that fell wanting a nom) then we’d have a decent race, however that is Zone’s to lose.

Who might upset? If by some means Netflix threw sufficient cash behind Society of the Snow, J.A. Bayona’s haunting dramatization of the 1972 aircraft crash that left Uruguayan rugby footballers to outlive within the Andes for months, then perhaps the movie might pull an All Quiet on the Western Entrance. However in all probability not.

Finest Animated Function Movie

The Boy and the Heron
Robotic Goals
Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse

Who will win? Many thought Hayao Miyazaki’s remaining movie might crack Finest Image. Didn’t occur — however second prize ought to be a win for The Boy and the Heron on this class.

Who might upset? Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse was an enormous hit and a sequel to earlier Finest Animated Function Movie winner. If Miyazaki’s advanced, usually summary animated drama didn’t resonate with the plenty within the voting physique, a top-tier popcorn flick might field it out. The class may be one of many nearer calls of the evening.

Finest Cinematography

El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Issues

Who will win? A shock nom for the legendary Ed Lachman for his work on Pablo Larraín’s El Conde may recommend a swell of curiosity within the under-the-radar movie, however in all probability not, and we should always all simply assume Oppenheimer is right here to dominate.

Who might upset? Rodrigo Prieto is having a killer yr — he shot each Killers of the Flower Moon and Barbie. If Martin Scorsese’s and Greta Gerwig’s films are each going to come back quick in a yr dominated by Oppenheimer, voters could throw Prieto a bone.

Finest Manufacturing Design

Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Issues

Who will win? This one is a race between Barbie, a mega-popular hit, and Poor Issues, an award-season darling (and a modest hit in its personal proper). Poor Issues has a leg up right here, having received on the Artwork Administrators Guild Awards, however with a bigger voting base on the wheel, I’m rolling the cube on Barbie, which received’t be honored many different occasions.

Who might upset? Poor Issues. Simply!

Finest Costume Design

Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Issues

Who will win? This appears like one other toss-up between Poor Issues and Barbie, however the Academy does loves a interval piece, so going with the extravagance of Poor Issues this time round.

Who might upset? Oppenheimer has been making a push for visibility on this class in For Your Consideration-fueled commerce magazines. Exhausting to think about the fits popping more durable than Barbie’s pink seems and Poor Issues’ fairy-tale robes, however don’t underestimate the ability of well-fitted pants.

Finest Hairstyling and Make-up

Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein conducting in a tuxedo in Maestro

Picture: Jason McDonald/Netflix

Poor Issues
Society of the Snow

Who will win? Nosegate be damned, the quantity of labor from the Maestro make-up and hair crew that went into reworking Bradley Cooper into Leonard Bernstein goes to clinch this one for his mixed-reviewed Finest Image nominee.

Who might upset? Society of the Snow.

Finest Movie Modifying

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Issues

Who will win? Oppenheimer. Three hours? Two timelines? Cosmological dream sequences intercut between snappy dialogue sequences? Finest Modifying is commonly seen because the bellwether for Finest Image, so count on Tenet editor Jennifer Lame to select this up.

Who might upset? Killers of the Flower Moon or Anatomy of a Fall are two different movies with advanced narratives to weave collectively, however neither appears sturdy sufficient to displace the frontrunner in a one-off craft class.

Finest Sound

The Creator
Mission: Unimaginable – Useless Reckoning Half One
The Zone of Curiosity

Who will win? Oppenheimer surround-sound method to intimate dialog positions it properly right here — additionally, it’s successful virtually every little thing else. However…

Who might upset? There’s a sturdy argument that The Zone of Curiosity is as a lot a soundscape with visuals as a conventional shifting image. If sufficient folks noticed Glazer’s movie in a theater, the place the horrifying combine actually pops, there’s motive to assume the movie might get the glory it deserves on Oscar day. Gamblers, take observe.

Finest Visible Results

Two robot police officers, crouching in a tropical locale, aim shotguns in The Creator.

Picture: twentieth Century Studios

The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Unimaginable – Useless Reckoning Half One

Who will win? The Creator made waves earlier this yr for bringing a $200 million blockbuster sheen on a reported budget of $80 million. The ingenuity is a testomony to Gareth Edwards’ shoot-and-figure-it-out-in-post methodology, however much more so to the artists who stuffed in his blanks. At a time when VFX homes are strained by mega-budgeted film producers who desire a ton of do-overs, there’s an even bigger narrative at play that ought to assist The Creator.

Who might upset? Godzilla Minus One marks the primary time a Godzilla movie broke into the Oscars. Everybody loves this kaiju melodrama, and the movie being nominated ought to be a sign of its energy within the class. With out Oppenheimer to suck up the air, it is a tight race.

Finest Authentic Tune

“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Scorching
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
“What Was I Made For” from Barbie

Who will win? Barbie must win one thing, and Ryan Gosling is displaying as much as sing “I’m Just Ken,” so let’s go along with that.

Who might upset? The solely film that might defeat Barbie is Barbie. Individuals nonetheless love Oscar-winner Billie Eilish and “What Was I Made For” has a really actual likelihood to upset. My mother advised me the music makes her cry when she hears it on the radio, which makes me wish to reverse these predictions. Gonna be a detailed one.

Finest Authentic Rating

American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Future
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Issues

Who will win? Ludwig Göransson, so scorching proper now. Nolan films, The Mandalorian, the Black Panther films… cool man. Oppenheimer has this unexpectedly muted class within the bag.

Who might upset? Dial of Future marks John Williams’ 54th Oscar nomination. He’s received 5 occasions earlier than — might the Academy pivot from honoring newer blood like Göransson in favor of paying tribute to what’s possible a 92-year-old legend’s remaining movie?

Finest Documentary Function Movie

Bobi Wine: The Individuals’s President
The Everlasting Reminiscence
4 Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

Who will win? The doc class was full of surprises, however the well timed Ukraine battle doc 20 Days in Mariupol ought to come out on prime.

Who might upset? To Kill a Tiger is the little film that might on this class, providing up a narrative of familial resilience within the face of tragedy. Dev Patel and Mindy Kaling got here on board to govt produce, which can have given it a bump of visibility across the Oscar voting deadline.

Finest Documentary Quick Movie

The ABCs of Guide Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Final Restore Store
Nai Nai & Wai Po

Who will win? The quick classes are all the time the hardest to foretell, even after you’ve seen them, however let’s go along with Nai Nai & Wai Po for Doc Quick. Director Sean Wang is on the rise — his debut function Didi premiered at Sundance simply as his quick was nominated for the Oscar — and with visibility on Disney Plus, the lighthearted doc a few dancing grandma feels increased profile in a great way.

Who might upset? Political movies all the time play properly with voters, and The ABCs of Guide Banning feels just like the well timed alternative.

Finest Reside-Motion Quick Movie

The After
Knight of Fortune
Pink, White, and Blue
The Fantastic Story of Henry Sugar

Who will win? Unfair to quick filmmakers that Wes Anderson is competing on this class, however he actually introduced the products with The Fantastic Story of Henry Sugar!

Who might upset? Netflix has given a powerful push to a different one in every of its movies, The After, starring David Oyelowo. If sweetness goes down simpler than Anderson’s unique-but-not-for-everyone tone, we might very properly see an upset.

Finest Animated Quick Movie

Letter to a Pig
Ninety-5 Senses
Our Uniform
Warfare Is Over! Impressed by the Music of John & Yoko

Who will win? Set in an alternate WWI, Warfare Is Over! Impressed by the Music of John & Yoko comes from Lenono Music, ElectroLeague, WetaFX, and Epic Video games and entails chess, service pigeons, and a reminder that battle is dangerous. I requested Polygon author Joshua Rivera to inform me the way it was and he referred to as it “saccharine bullshit elevated from ignorant to offensive by release timing.” That is positively going to win the Oscar.

Who might upset? All of the folks I do know who love films and have seen the animated shorts appear to agree that Ninety-5 Senses, from co-directors Jerusha Hess (Austenland) and Jared Hess (Nacho Libre), pushes the animated type in thrilling methods and ought to take residence the Oscar. Which suggests it’ll in all probability lose and Jared Hess can settle for directing the Minecraft film. However, hey, perhaps there’ll be a twist!

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